DTN Midday Grain Comments 09/22 11:26
Beans, Wheat Higher at Midday
Corn is narrowly mixed, soybeans are 1 to 3 cents higher, and wheat is 5 to
9 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is lower with the Dow down 145 points. The dollar
index is 30 points higher. Interest rate products are mixed. Energies are mixed
with crude up $0.20. Livestock trade is mixed with hogs the upside leader.
Precious metals are mixed with gold down $5.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday with light two-5
sided trade so far with harvest pressure expected to increase this week as
we come off of overbought conditions. Outside markets are mostly neutral
overnight with the dollar holding gains. The daily export wire had sales of
140,000 metric tons of corn to China, and 320,000 metric tons to unknown.
Ethanol margins remain flat with ethanol holding premiums to unleaded. Basis
has started to slide towards harvest levels in many areas. Weekly crop progress
showed conditions 1 percentage point better at 61% good to excellent, and 14%
poor to very poor, with 59% mature vs. 49% on average, and 8% harvested vs. 10%
on average. On the December contract, trade has support at the $3.63 20-day
moving average, with the recent high at $3.79 as resistance.
Soybeans trade is 1 to 3 cents higher at midday with volatile two-side trade
continuing, with export sales storming along with another 266,000 metric tons
to China, and 264,000 to unknown, while the spread trys to stabilize after
being weaker the last couple of days. Meal is 3.50 to 4.50 higher and oil is 30
to 40 points lower. The ral remains in the lower end of the range ahead of
South American planting with farmers waiting for seasonal rains while Argentine
farmer selling remains slow. Export offers continue to get tighter in
availability as well. Weekly crop progress showed conditions unchanged at 63%
good to excellent, and 10% poor to very poor with 59% dropping leaves vs. 50%
on average, and 6% harvested same as average. The November chart has resistance
at the upper Bollinger Band at $10.46, which is also the fresh high with
support the 20-day at $9.79.
Wheat trade is 5 to 9 cents higher at midday with trade working to find
buying after the sharp pullback on Monday with support from calmer row crop
trade. The dollar remains steady vs. the ruble with little change in world
export competitiveness. Kansas City is at a 66-cent discount to Chicago with
spreads narrowing again after the Friday reversal, while Minneapolis is back to
a 23 cent discount with wider action to start. Wheat-drilling progress should
expand across the Plains short term with OK moisture for most for now. Weekly
crop progress showed wheat 20% planted vs. 19% on average, 3% emerged vs. 2% on
average. Kansas City December chart resistance is the fresh high at $5.09, and
support is the 20-day at $4.76.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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