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DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/11 10:56

   Corn, Soybeans Up Double Digits at Midday

   Corn is 14 to 16 cents higher with new crop 3 to 4 cents higher, soybeans 
are 30 to 33 cents higher with new crop 16 to 18 cents higher and wheat 7 to 15 
cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 420 points. The U.S. 
Dollar Index is 0.18 lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are 
narrowly mixed with crude up $0.20. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle 
leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold down $5.90.


   Corn trade is 14 to 16 cents higher on the front months, with new crop 3 to 
4 cents higher as trade comes off early selling to work higher after the 
washout Monday; volatile trade is likely to continue near term. Ethanol margins 
will be supported by stronger unleaded values after the pipeline shutdown, with 
corn values again limiting upside. Cooler weather short term after rains should 
give way to warmer and wetter action by the end of the week. Brazil continues 
to struggle with dryness during pollination with crop estimates still falling. 
Corn basis is holding firm throughout the belt, with China buying 680,000 
metric tons of new crop in the daily wire. The WASDE report Wednesday is 
expected to show old-crop carryout at 1.269 billion and new crop and 1.360 
billion, with reductions to world stocks on the Brazil double crop. Weekly crop 
progress showed 67% planted versus 52% on the five-year average, and 20% 
emerged versus 19% on average. On the July contract, chart resistance is the 
fresh contact high at $7.35 3/4 with support the 20-day at $6.51.


   Soybeans are 30 to 33 cents higher up front, with new crop 16 to 18 cents 
higher with stronger spread action ongoing, while planting progress pushes well 
ahead of normal. Meal is $6.50 to $7.50 higher and oil is 0.75 cent to 0.85 
cent higher. The WASDE report is expected to show carryout at 116 million 
bushels on old crop and 138 on new, with world stocks flat from last month. 
Planters will continue to roll short term with some areas of rain slowing 
action, but we are well ahead of pace with 42% planted versus 22% on average, 
and 10% emerged versus 6% on average. South America should continue to see 
shipping progress short term, while domestic crush will carry U.S. basis. On 
the July soybean chart, support is the 20-day at $15.10, with resistance the 
upper Bollinger Band at $16.29 with the new high at $16.25.


   Wheat trade is 7 to 14 cents higher with trade following the lead of the row 
crops to rebound overnight with Minneapolis action leading as the Northern 
Plains forecast works drier. KC is at 36-cent discount to Chicago with 
Minneapolis now 17 cents above Chicago with intramonth spreads mixed. Seasonal 
weather on the Plains should boost growth, with dry concerns for spring wheat 
staying in place and some pockets of relief in recent days. Weekly crop 
progress showed conditions 1% better at 49% good to excellent and 18% poor to 
very poor for winter wheat, with 38% headed versus 46% on average, and spring 
wheat 70% planted versus 51% on average, and 29% emerged versus 20% on average. 
Other Northern Hemisphere weather will continue to be watched as well The WASDE 
report is expected to show old-crop carryout at 844 million bushels, and 743 
million on new, with world stocks flat. KC July on the chart has support at the 
recent low of $6.86 3/4, and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $7.59.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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